A new video venture announced by Elon Musk will face strong challenges from entrenched incumbents, according to industry pundits.
Reports began appearing regarding the social media platform’s plans to craft an app to stream long-form videos to users of X (formerly Twitter). “You can soon watch your favorite X long-form videos directly on your SmartTVs,” Musk revealed on X via the DogeDesigner account.
The upcoming service will be launched on Samsung TVs and Amazon’s Fire TV platform. It is expected to be a YouTube-like long-form video streaming service designed to make it easier and more comfortable to watch long-form content on a bigger screen.
Musk has previously stated that X would be a “video-first” platform moving forward. This development shows that the strategy will translate beyond the small content boxes typically available on mobile feeds onto the big screen.
Experts note that Musk’s announcement is more than just bluster. “The likelihood that he’ll try this is high. The likelihood, given how he has mismanaged Twitter, in him doing this right is exceedingly low,” observed Rob Enderle, president and principal analyst of the Enderle Group, an advisory services firm in Bend, Ore.
“This is not an area he has shown a competency in,” he added.
Formidable Ambition Versus Formidable Competition
Musk’s track record of disrupting industries with ventures like Tesla and SpaceX demonstrates his capacity for bold innovation. Yet, the streaming market is fiercely competitive, with established players like YouTube dominating, says Mark N. Vena, president and principal analyst with SmartTech Research in San Jose, Calif.
“Success would depend on Musk’s ability to offer unique features, compelling content, and seamless integration with Samsung TVs while addressing user concerns about privacy and data security,” Vena noted. “While his vision and ambition are formidable, the journey to establishing a credible alternative to YouTube on Samsung smart TVs is fraught with obstacles, making success uncertain but not impossible.”
Mike Horning, an associate professor of multimedia journalism at Virginia Tech University, was unsurprised by Musk’s announcement. “I felt he was going to move in this direction when he hired Linda Yaccarino to be CEO of X,” Horning said. Yaccarino is a former executive from NBCUniversal with deep ties to the advertising industry.
However, Matthew Dolgin, a senior equity analyst with Morningstar Research Services in Chicago, remains skeptical about the timeline. “Based on his history and the reported challenges at X, I would say it’s premature to expect that this will come to fruition,” he stated.
Dolgin doesn’t see an immediate demand for what Musk is offering from either consumers or content providers:
- From a consumer perspective: YouTube is already free, easy to use, and widely accessible.
- From a provider perspective: Creators benefit greatly from the massive network effects of Google and YouTube. They wouldn’t actively look for an alternative platform unless it promised materially greater income.
A Better Storytelling Platform?
Enderle agreed that there doesn’t appear to be organic demand for what Musk is selling right now. “Demand would have to be built, and Musk doesn’t really believe in marketing, so he’ll try to use Twitter to create that demand,” he said. “I don’t expect it will end well, given how many folks have dropped Twitter.”
Vena, though, does see a market opening for X. “As streaming becomes increasingly popular, users are seeking diverse content options beyond what YouTube offers,” he explained. “A competitive service could cater to niche interests, provide exclusive content, or offer a more curated viewing experience.”
He added that concerns over data privacy and content moderation on YouTube have also spurred interest in alternatives that prioritize user control and safety.
A Musk-led alternative might also offer content creators greater creative freedom, maintained Neil Chase, a filmmaker and co-founder of Brimstone Pictures.
“All content on streaming services is curated to such a degree that the quality of storytelling and informational content has gotten generally weaker. There are certain things people are allowed to say and certain things they are not. This is a fact.
The one thing that Musk brings to the table that others don’t is a platform for storytellers and content creators to express their creativity and thoughts in a space that’s less regulated.”
— Neil Chase, Co-founder of Brimstone Pictures
Eye Toward a “Universal App”
Musk may also believe YouTube is spreading itself too thin by trying to compete with market upstarts. “YouTube has been expanding, trying to take on TikTok and Reels,” explained Ross Rubin, the principal analyst with Reticle Research.
“Maybe Musk feels that is an opportunity, that YouTube is taking its eye off the ball chasing short-form video, and there’s an opportunity to appeal to content providers who want to do more substantial or cerebral types of content,” Rubin said.
Rubin noted, however, that one of the significant challenges for Musk is that X seems to be losing momentum in terms of membership and advertiser growth.
Data from Edison Research highlighted this shift. In 2022 and 2023, roughly 27% of the total U.S. population reported using Twitter. By 2024, that number dropped to 19%, marking a significant 30% decline in reach.
Ultimately, Musk’s move into TV appears to be part of his grander goal to turn X into an “everything app”—a single place where users can go to satisfy all their online needs.
“I’m sure his engineering team can do whatever he wants to do,” Rubin said. “The question isn’t functionality. It’s making X the go-to service for multiple functions the way WeChat is in China. That is a tall order. In the U.S., we have the kinds of incumbents that weren’t in China as WeChat rose to prominence.”